This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread last season, going 211-176 while returning $1,740 to $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, it has broken down Kansas vs. Duke. We can tell you it’s leaning under, but it’s also generated an extremely strong against the spread pick, saying one side of the spread cashes in nearly 70 percent of simulations. It’s only available at SportsLine.
The model knows the Blue Devils are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games against Big 12 teams and will look to avenge two tough losses in their last two meetings with Kansas. The Jayhawks defeated Duke 85-81 in overtime in the 2018 Regional Final and knocked off the top-ranked but undermanned Blue Devils on a last-second jumper in this event in 2016.
Tre Jones is Duke’s lone returning starter, but seniors Javin DeLaurier and Jack White remain part of the rotation. The Blue Devils will look to 6-foot-10 center Carey and 6-foot-9 forward Hurt to occupy the interior to open up things for the outside shooters, including White (27.8 percent on three-pointers last season) and Alex O’Connell (37.5). Joey Baker made six-of-eight three-pointers and scored 22 points in the final preseason game.
But just because the Blue Devils appear to have the edge in depth and talent doesn’t mean they will cover the Kansas vs. Duke spread in the Champions Classic 2019.
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